![How to become a world football superpower: China’s recipe](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/17107997462055484963-470x140.jpg)
China, with the world’s largest population, excels in many sports, especially athletics. Yet, it miserably underperformed at one of the most popular sport worldwide, and…
![Workshop on Italian Music](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Seminario-Musica-470x140.jpg)
The Professor Luciano Tristaino, Director of Franci Musical Institute in Siena (Italy), held a seminar about “The study of Music and the Orchestra practice and…
![China’s role in Nuclear Security Cooperation: Xi in Washington at the NSS](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/XxjiweE005004_20160404_BNMFN0A001_11n-470x140.jpg)
The fourth Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) concluded in Washington on 1 April. Leaders from more than 50 countries and international organizations, such as the International…
![Innovation Capabilities of Hi-Tech Small and Medium-sized Enterprises](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/7e03cb27776c9d9d6ec19b6a96b04787-470x140.jpg)
The target growth range announced by China’s government with the 13th five-year plan, released in March this years, is between 6.5 and 7 percent. In…
![IMF Christine Lagarde at the China Development Forum](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/131016366-470x140.jpg)
The three-day China Development Forum (CDF) kicked off at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing last Saturday. The CDF is a large-scale and high-profile international…
![4th MOVIE NIGHT: “IL POSTINO” BY MICHAEL RADFORD](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Il-postino-2-470x140.jpg)
March 10th, 2016 Time: 6:30 -8:30 pm Venue: Chongqing University, Campus A, Main teaching building, Room 328 Please share:
![China’s 13th Five-Year Plan: restrained growth and new development strategies](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/151696416-470x140.jpg)
The National People’s Congress (NPC) – the Chinese Communist Party-controlled legislature – together with the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – the top governmental…
![Chinese women are trying to reach their half of the sky](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/poster01-470x140.jpg)
On Tuesday this week, all around the globe Women’s Day has been celebrated in many different ways. Multinational companies have embraces the holiday, turning it…
![Joint Venture Experiences in Chongqing’s Automotive Industry](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/stonum-automotive-engine-transmission-repair-longmont-470x140.jpg)
China is now the world’s biggest automobile market, both in terms of production and of consumption. Chongqing started producing cars, trucks, motorcycles and components more…
![WHEN FOOD BECOMES ART: ITALIAN CUISINE EXPLAINED](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2015-12-23-18.20.53-470x140.jpg)
By Martina Telesca On December 23, the third of a series of workshops organized by Galileo Galilei Italian Institute, with the cooperation of Chongqing University,…
![New Rule for Media in China: what to expect?](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0270050003-1-470x140.jpg)
After touring China’s three leading news providers, People’s Daily newspaper, Xinhua News Agency, and China Central Television (CCTV) last Friday, Chinese president Xi Jinping presided…
![CCP cadres are trembling: China’s anti-corruption campaign](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/wKhTg1QOqGgEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA793-470x140.jpg)
Since the beginning of 2016, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been putting a strong stress on enforcing moral standards and discipline in the selection of…
![Chongqing Mayor tipped to rescue China’s financial markets](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/9156429_173618720136_2-470x140.jpg)
Having lost around the 15% of its value in the first two weeks of 2016, Chinese stockmarket is still struggling to achieve stability. After the dramatic…
![姚树洁:关于现代中国股市的评论](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/4034970a304e251f25c3d674a786c9177f3e5301-268x140.jpg)
姚树洁 诺丁汉大学当代中国学学院院长,经济学教授,著名华裔经济学家, 西安交通大学特聘讲座教授,重庆大学全职教授(2014年起)全英中国专业团体联和会副主席,联合国开发计划署和世界银行经济顾问。 2016年开市的第一周,中国股市连续暴跌,到现在已经跌破2900点。人民币继2015年跌幅5%以后,2016年的头10个交易日连续多次大幅度下跌。虽然1月12日突然暴涨1000点,13日企稳在1美元兑6.56人民币的水平,比今年开始的时候跌近2000个基点。 我1月9日从伦敦坐飞机到上海,手上抓了一份《Financial Times》,从头版头条,到中间的各种评论,整个数十页的大报纸,有近10%的篇幅在讲中国“两市”问题,中国经济放慢以后的发展展望,以及对世界经济的影响。 其中,最让人难忘的,就是有种“中国打喷嚏,全球都感冒”的感觉。从2016年1月4日开市,到1月8日,由于受中国“两市”暴跌的影响,全球上市公司的股值缩水2.4万亿美元,相当于2014年印度和俄国两国GDP的总和。 中国作为世界经济的增长“引擎”,如果中国不行了,世界经济当然要遭殃。这一方面说明中国的重要性,另一方面也说明世界经济全球化已经与中国的命运紧紧地连在一起。因此,中国经济增长一旦大幅度衰减,全世界的目光都会盯住中国,全球经济也必将受到沉重的打击。 这也难怪,在中国“两市”同时暴跌的时候,外界对中国的种种分析、猜想,甚至幸灾乐祸和诽谤的言论,到处可见。 我今天早上花了3个小时的时间,接受新华社重庆分社主任记者张琴和她的同事,新华网政文部主编邓婷的采访。我讲话内容的最后要点是这样的。第一,我对目前中国出现的困难既是“悲观”的,因为,如果没有这些在5年前预想不到的困难的话,中国必将在2025年之前超过美国。第二,我对中国的未来依然是乐观的,因为,出现目前的发展阻力,可能使中国推后5年,也就是要到2030年才能超过美国,成为全球第一大经济体。也就是说,中国不是能不能赶上美国的问题,而是什么时候能够赶上的问题。晚5年也好,甚至晚10年也好,中国成为全球第一大经济体是一种必然,而不只是一种可能。 中国的GDP增长7.4%,2015年前三季度增长6.9%。虽然增长速度的下降幅度比大家预想的大,但是,下降0.5个百分点,不是通常定义的软着陆,更不是危机。其次,就2015年的前三季度来说,全球的增长率不到3%。除了印度的增长率比中国略高,全球10大经济体,中国的表现是最好的。例如,美国增长2%,英国2.4%,欧元区1.8%,日本1%,而俄罗斯和巴西都是负增长4%以上。 面对如此残酷的外部经济环境,面对国内结构严重失调和资产泡沫,中国还能保持6.9%的增长速度, 实属不容易。 那么,我既然对中国的未来保持乐观态度,我们又怎样解释“两市双降”问题? 首先,中国股市从一开始就是有问题的,不是今天才有问题的。股市使老百姓吃亏,使中国经济的正常运行受到干扰,使中国的国际形象受到损害。但是,股市不是中国经济的命根子,最少目前不是。 至于人民币汇率,央行是不是已经中了“外部势力”的圈套?2005年的汇改,让人民币一路升值,外汇大量流入,推升资产泡沫,降低中国出口的竞争力。2014年以后,对外汇管理采取管制性的浮动汇率,甚至把浮动的幅度从一个百分点调高到两个百分点,快速推动人民币国际化和加入SDR,等等。 要知道,一旦股市和汇市全面放开,而堵住投机和资本外逃的机制还没有健全,那么,中国就把自己的命根子直接交给了国内外的投机者。过于自由的“两市”就可能让中国重蹈1997年东南亚经济危机的覆辙。 1997年以前,东南亚诸国经济发展非常好,但是,他们在市场自由化的推动下,露出了许多破绽。尤其是马来西亚和泰国,他们既没有“四小龙”的基础和韧劲,也没有足够的外汇储备和堵住外资流出的有效机制,所以,在本国货币大幅度贬值和股票市场崩盘的双重打击之下,国民经济受到了致命的伤害,导致后来的恢复与发展,一直缺乏元气。 中国2016的“两市”大跌,有点像1997年的亚洲危机,但是,中国“两市”下跌的幅度远没有泰国和马来西亚当年那么可怕。另外,中国还有3万多亿美元的外汇储备垫底,足够抵挡任何恶意的打击。股市基本还是国内交易为主,股市暴跌,影响是少部分人,对中国经济不会产生致命的伤害。 我对中国乐观的理由,还是“中国人”这三个字。何谓“中国人”?她代表勤奋、简朴、好学而不甘落后。这些优良的文化习惯,是中国赖以长期发展的根本。 中国的优势还在于,政治稳定,民族自尊心强,不甘落后,不怕困难。1978年以前够困难了吧?改革初期够困难了吧?现在已经有了可持续发展的基础,为什么还怕困难? 出口和外资靠不住了,中国不用怕。国内的市场巨大,地区和城乡的差别巨大,说明中国还有无穷的发展空间。把落后地区的经济发展水平,推高到全国的平均水平,就可以让中国有很长的时间保持“中高速度”发展。 当然,中国经济可持续发展,依然需要政府正确的决策,需要科学的发展规划和布局,需要明智的市场调控措施。 对人民币汇率,在目前经济处于脆弱的阶段,一定要采取措施稳住,不能出现大起大落的情况,以避免投资者对中国经济失去信心。 对于股市,要加强公司的长期监管,降低股民的投机心理,堵住任何以投机有关的金融杠杆或者工具。…
![China's stockmarket turmoil: one of the worst starts for 2016](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/92f7a500c01fd0bc45994539131cab7a-470x140.jpg)
During this second week of the new year, Chinese stockmarket continued its sharp fall up to Thursday, when both Shanghai and Shenzhen closed with relevant…
![CHINA'S TOP 5 CHALLENGES IN THE YEAR OF THE MONKEY](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Missiva-Top-5-challenges-collage-470x140.png)
As 2015 ended, China enters 2016 with renewed hopes and a widespread pride for great achievements on the global arena, but it also confronts with…
![Italian online is still buffering](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/12483368_10153820851544938_1022119333_n-470x140.jpg)
Lately, I have heard that Italian has become one of the most studied language in the world. Somebody says is the fourth or fifth in…
![3rd movie night: "Lezioni di cioccolato" by Claudio Cupellini](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Lezioni-di-cioccolato-470x140.jpg)
December 10th, 2015 Time: 6.30 pm Venue: Chongqing University, Campus A, Main teaching building, Room 213 Please share:
![Italy and China: 45 years of diplomatic relations. What does the future look like?](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/09039ba9649069754cb6f85f693d3742-470x140.jpg)
China and Italy relations are gradually entering into a new juncture, distinguished by a deepening relation at all levels. The One Belt One Road strategy…
![Andornino on China-Italy deepening relationships](http://www.galileiinstitute.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/s200_giovanni.andornino-200x140.jpg)
Giovanni Andornino shares his view on the recent visit of the President of the Italian Senate to China as a milestone in the deepening of…